IndigenousNetwork was able to attend a recent briefing hosted by American Community Media examining the economic and political fallout of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and the growing pressure now hitting global supply chains. While much of the American media coverage around the conflict has centered on military escalation and geopolitical rhetoric, the briefing instead focused on something more immediate: the cost of war as it reaches ordinary people, particularly poorer countries and working-class households already living close to economic collapse.
The discussion arrived at a moment where inflation, energy insecurity, and food prices are again becoming defining global anxieties. For Indigenous communities, particularly rural and low-income communities already dealing with unstable infrastructure, fuel dependency, and rising food costs, the conversation carried obvious relevance. Much of the briefing revolved around a simple point: wars between states do not stay contained to maps or headlines. They travel outward through fertilizer prices, cooking gas shortages, freight costs, and empty shelves.
Sunita Sohrabji, health editor at American Community Media and moderator of the event, opened the briefing by describing how “consumer goods disruptions [are] rippling through global markets and supply chains,” particularly for oil and trade routes moving through the Strait of Hormuz. She noted that although Iran had reopened the strait earlier that morning, uncertainty remained around whether the situation would stabilize or escalate again.
One of the briefing’s central speakers was William O. Beeman, professor emeritus of anthropology at the University of Minnesota and a longtime scholar of Iranian history and culture. Beeman argued that much of the American public fundamentally misunderstands Iran’s motivations because the conflict is usually framed only through military or nuclear narratives, rather than through the country’s historical relationship to foreign intervention.
“One of the most important driving forces in the actions of the Iranian government is the protection of Iranian national sovereignty,” Beeman said. He repeatedly emphasized that Iranian political identity has been shaped by nearly two centuries of foreign interference and colonial pressure. “No amount of economic coercion, no amount of military coercion is going to deter the Iranian government from this major goal,” he added.
Beeman also criticized the religious language increasingly appearing in American political rhetoric surrounding the conflict. Referencing comments made by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Trump, he warned that biblical framing carries very different meanings in the Middle East than it does in the United States. “It immediately evokes the Crusades,” he said.
The briefing’s economic analysis came from Ryan Nunn, director of research at Yale University’s Budget Lab and former Federal Trade Commission attorney. Nunn focused on how oil shocks ripple through the US economy and why even relatively temporary disruptions can still hit lower-income households hard.
“In the US, the price of oil was about $65 per barrel just before the conflict and about $100” earlier this week, Nunn explained. He noted that although prices had begun falling again in the last 24 hours, the economic effects would likely persist for months or longer.
Nunn described how oil shocks function differently today than they did during the 1970s because the United States now produces more domestic oil and relies less heavily on petroleum-intensive manufacturing. Still, he warned that inflation tied to energy prices disproportionately affects poorer households. “Low-income households spend more on energy than high-income households do,” he said.
The conversation became more urgent when the briefing shifted away from the United States and toward countries already living under economic strain. Anil Deolalikar, professor of economics at UC Riverside and founding dean of the university’s School of Public Policy, focused heavily on India as a case study for how oil shocks spread through poorer economies.
“Petroleum is not just used in transport as most people think,” Deolalikar explained. “It is a raw material used in thousands and thousands of everyday products.” He pointed to fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, plastics, food systems, and cooking gas as sectors already destabilized by rising prices.
Deolalikar described the situation in India in stark terms. Nearly half of India’s crude oil imports move through the Strait of Hormuz, along with massive portions of its liquid petroleum gas and natural gas supply. In many Indian cities, he said, LPG prices have surged between 200% and 400%, creating shortages severe enough that households have returned to firewood and kerosene for cooking.
But the most devastating impacts, according to Deolalikar, are unfolding in rural communities. Small farmers already operating under debt pressure are now facing soaring fertilizer and diesel prices during planting season. “Many of them live literally paycheck to paycheck,” he said.
He warned repeatedly that the effects would likely continue long after oil prices stabilize. “I would not be surprised if we see a spike in the number of farmer suicides over the next month or two,” Deolalikar said.
For Indigenous and rural communities globally, much of the discussion felt painfully recognizable. Inflation is rarely experienced equally. Fuel spikes hit isolated areas first. Food costs rise fastest where transportation infrastructure is weakest. Poorer communities are asked to absorb instability created far away from them. Throughout the briefing, speakers repeatedly described how macroeconomic shocks become deeply personal realities: less food, higher debt, worse air quality, migration, unemployment.
The briefing also underscored how closely global conflict is tied to supply chains that most people rarely think about until they break. Cooking gas in India. Fertilizer prices for farmers. Shipping routes through the Gulf. Oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Much of the global economy depends on narrow corridors of movement that can destabilize almost overnight.
Near the end of the briefing, Deolalikar delivered perhaps the bleakest assessment of the afternoon. Even if oil prices begin falling now, he argued, “some of the damage to the poorest countries in the world and to the most vulnerable populations in the world has already been done.” He predicted rising poverty, child malnutrition, and worsening debt over the next several years regardless of whether markets eventually recover.
What the briefing ultimately revealed was how quickly war moves beyond battlefields. It enters kitchens, farms, grocery stores, ports, and fuel stations. It reshapes daily life first for people with the least margin to absorb another shock.
