How Would a Merger of the U.S. and Canada Affect Indigenous Population Percentages in North America?

Kevin A. Thompson
March 12, 2025

Image: Map of Linguistic Stocks of (North)American Indians, 1890 US Census bureau, Wikimedia Commons

If President Trump gets his way and Canada becomes part of the United States, what will be the new ethnic/racial makeup of this country? Is this a White nationalist scheme to counter the growing non-White numbers in the United States?

I asked Chat GPT and got some extensive results. (all numbers are approximates)

I had once suspected that a US merger with Canada might be a White nationalist plot, but the raw numbers don’t serve such a purpose, by themselves.

For example, the combined numbers of US Indigenous (4m) and Canadian First Nations (2m) results in 6 million people and an even higher proportion in the merged nation(1.6%) than in the US (1.4%) and Canada (1%) respectively.

Likewise, The US-Canada Black population would now have 49 million people, combining US Blacks (46 million) and Canadian Blacks (1.7m). The new combined percentage would be 13% of the merged total. That’s a slight drop from 13.6% for US Blacks, but a dramatic increase for Black Canadians, who currently represent only 4% of Canada’s population.

The White population of the merged nation would have the biggest gains in practical terms. Non-Hispanic US Whites, now at 197m (50-58%) and Canadian Whites, now at 27m (67.4%) would combine for a new total of 224 million people, representing 59% of the new US-Canada merged population of 375 million people. This would slow down the process of Whites losing their majority in both countries, but probably would not reverse it. However, the more even distribution of of Whites, both geographically and economically, would enable them to hold onto a disproportionate amount of influence in the new, larger nation.

The Hispanic/Latino population would remain about the same (as there are few Latinos in Canada), but its proportion would drop from 20% in the US to 17.3% in the merged US-Canada.

Below is the AI-generated response from Chat GPT. It continued to merge the Hispanic and non-Hispanic White populations, even  when instructed not to. Also it left out 2 million American Indians of Hispanic origin, as the US Census has been allowing since 2010:

If the United States and Canada were to merge, the combined population would be approximately 375 million people. To estimate the racial and ethnic composition of this unified population, we can analyze the demographics of each country as of 2025.​

United States Demographics (2025):

Canada Demographics (2025):

Estimated Combined Demographics:

By weighting the populations of each country, we can approximate the racial and ethnic breakdown of the merged nation:​

  • White (including Hispanic Whites): Approximately 75.0%​en.wikipedia.org
  • Black or African American: Approximately 13.5%​en.wikipedia.org
  • Asian: Approximately 6.5%​
  • Multiracial: Approximately 3.0%​
  • Native American and Indigenous: Approximately 1.5%​
  • Pacific Islander: Approximately 0.3%​
  • Hispanic or Latino (of any race): Approximately 19.0%​

These figures are rough estimates, as the racial and ethnic categories used by the United States and Canada differ, and the dynamics of a merged population could lead to shifts in these demographics over time.​

Sources

You said:

Redo this, but separate Hispanic Whites from non-Hispanic Whites

ChatGPT said:

Here's a revised breakdown with Hispanic Whites separated from non-Hispanic Whites for the hypothetical merged United States and Canada (approx. 375 million people).

Current Demographics of the U.S. and Canada (2025 Estimates)

United States (335 million)

  • Non-Hispanic White: 58.9% (~197 million)
  • Hispanic White: 10.2% (~34 million)
  • Black: 13.6% (~46 million)
  • Asian: 6.3% (~21 million)
  • Multiracial: 3.0% (~10 million)
  • Native American: 1.3% (~4 million)
  • Pacific Islander: 0.3% (~1 million)
  • Hispanic (non-White): 8.9% (~30 million)

Canada (40 million)

  • Non-Hispanic White: 67.4% (~27 million)
  • Indigenous: 5.0% (~2 million)
  • Visible Minorities: 26.5% (~11 million), including:
    • South Asian: 7.1% (~2.8 million)
    • Chinese: 4.7% (~1.9 million)
    • Black: 4.3% (~1.7 million)
    • Filipino: 2.6% (~1 million)
    • Arab: 1.9% (~760,000)
    • Latin American: 1.6% (~640,000)
    • Southeast Asian: 1.1% (~440,000)
    • West Asian: 1.0% (~400,000)
    • Korean: 0.6% (~240,000)
    • Japanese: 0.3% (~120,000)

Estimated Demographics for the Combined U.S. & Canada (375 million people)

  • Non-Hispanic White: 59.7% (~224 million)
  • Hispanic White: 9.1% (~34 million)
  • Black: 13.0% (~49 million)
  • Asian: 6.8% (~25 million)
  • Multiracial: 3.1% (~12 million)
  • Native American & Indigenous: 1.6% (~6 million)
  • Pacific Islander: 0.3% (~1 million)
  • Hispanic (non-White): 8.2% (~31 million)

Key Takeaways

  • White (total): Drops slightly to 68.8% (from 76.5% in the U.S. alone) because Canada has a lower proportion of White residents.
  • Black Population: Stays relatively stable at 13.0% due to Canada’s small Black community.
  • Asian Population: Increases slightly to 6.8%, reflecting Canada's large South Asian and Chinese communities.
  • Indigenous Population: Rises slightly to 1.6% due to Canada's significant Indigenous presence.
  • Hispanic Population: Slightly decreases to 17.3% due to Canada's smaller Latin American community.